Weekly Market Commentary - Nov 21, 2025
Major stories:
Cryptocurrency markets ended the week sharply lower with BTC/USD trading as low as $81,000 before recovering to $85,100 now. ETH/USD is trading at $2,760. The delayed U.S. September jobs report was stronger than expected, but October's report will be cancelled and November delayed until after the December 10 Fed meeting. Recent Fed statements have led markets to price in about a 70% chance of a December rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. The Japanese government announced a fiscal stimulus package.
Trading Update:
Funding rates are near to 0% on major exchanges. The BTC futures basis is trading at 4% annualized on Binance and OKX and 6% on CME. The ETH futures basis is at 3% on OKX, 4% on Binance and 5% on CME. On Deribit, 3-month options implied volatility increased this week to 52% for BTC and 74% for ETH. BTC ETFs had net outflows of $1.39B this week, while ETH ETFs had net outflows of $542M.
Other News:
Grayscale's XRP and DOGE ETFs will begin trading next Monday. Blackrock filed for a staked Ether ETF. The Blackrock BUIDL fund will be available as collateral on Binance and expand to BNB Chain. Coinbase acquired Vector, a DEX on the Solana network. Kalshi raised $1B at an $11B valuation. Kraken raised $800M at a $20B valuation, while still moving forward with its IPO plans. Cboe will launch BTC and ETH perpetual futures in December. DeFi analytics company DappRadar has shut down. Strategy bought 8,178 BTC last week, Cypherpunk Technologies bought $18M of ZEC, BitMine bought 54,000 ETH, El Salvador bought 1,090 BTC and Metaplanet will raise $150M through preferred equity sales. Other treasury companies including AVAX One and FG Nexus have initiated share buybacks to take advantage of NAV discounts to treasury holdings.
